![]() But, if you look at the median points scored like we suggest, you would correctly predict that Rodgers gives you the better chance at winning your matchup, Best QBs of 2021 by Median Points Scored If you look only at average points scored, this might surprise you. ![]() If you’re starting Burrow you might feel pretty confident because he averages more than Rodgers! We ran the simulations again and now…Rodgers still wins 52% of the matchups. Now, Burrow has a higher mean points scored while Rodgers has the higher median points scored. Let’s add an additional point to all of Burrow’s games. If you just looked at the mean points scored, you would have no idea who is the better player to start. That means the team that started Rodgers, the guy with the higher median, had a much higher chance of winning the fantasy matchup than the guy who started Burrow. Over the course of these simulations, Aaron Rodgers outscored Joe Burrow 55% of the time. I picked one of Burrow’s games at random (with the added extra half point) and compared it to a random game of Rodgers. I claim that you should be much happier starting Rodgers than Burrow in this game even though their average points scored is now identical! To show you how significant this is, I ran an experiment. This leaves us with the following (adjusted data) In order to make a fair comparison from a “mean points scored” perspective, let’s add about 0.5 points per game to Burrow’s scores. Last year Rodgers was more consistent than Burrow. Let’s suppose that two teams are tied going into Monday Night Football and both have their quarterbacks remaining – Burrow v. I’m going to run a few simulations to show why consistency is king and why mean fantasy points scored is inferior to median points scored. This would imply that in a typical week, the given player would more than likely “under-perform” relative to their average points scored. It is totally possible that a boom/bust type player might have a mean points score significantly larger than their median. On the other hand, we can’t make any probability-base statements by just looking at the mean. From a fantasy football perspective, the median is the point where its a coin flip if the player scores more or less in a given week. The median is defined to be the point where 50% of the data is larger and 50% of the data is smaller. From a statistical perspective, medians are really measures of probability while means are measures of long-term performance. ![]() While they are related, your goal in a fantasy football matchup is to maximize your probability of winning any individual week and not to maximize the points scored over the course of the season. The Theory of Median Points Scored for Fantasy Football I’ll use an intuitive argument, some simulations, and some statistical theory to make my point in the best way possible. In this article I will take you through my thought process on why fantasy football median points scored is the better metric. However, if that player is high variance then he might score 8 points per week the next three weeks and seriously hurt your winning chances. Fantasy managers that like high variance players may argue that if one of your players booms for 50 points, it doesn’t really matter what the rest of your team does – you’re nearly guaranteed to win that week.
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